Apple 6.6 Year Daily Technical Chart

Technical Indicators Bottomed and Bounce Back On Extreme Price Decline to $142 and Partial Rebound to $172. The 50 Day vs. 200 Day Went Death-Cross in Dec-2018 (see stars) At $191/Share. Post iPhone Xs, XsMax, Xr Launches, and Q1 Earnings; Price Has Roller-Coastered, But Is Well Off The Oct-2018 Peak Price ($233/Share). Price Is Off $61 (26%). Still Waiting For The Elusive Super Cycle (maybe 5G). iPhone Revenues Were -15% Y/Y In The Holiday FY Q1, While Services Growth Was +27% (wo/adjustments) and Profits Were Flat At $20B. Amazingly, After All The Hubbub, iPhones Actually Grew Marketshare 0.4% in China's CY 2018 Smartphones Market, According to Strategy Analytics. I Think Tim Cook Is Right; Xs/Max Launch In CY Q3 2018 vs. X Launch In CY Q4 2017, Was A Hugh Factor In The Big CY Q4 iPhone Hole, -2.9M iPhones. I See Strong Fundamentals, With A Boat-Load of Cash Going Towards Buy-Backs. Weak-Spots: The Smartphone S-Cycle Has Peaked and Chinese Low-Cost OEMs are Here. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Collapsed To $178.49, From $231.32 On Nov-30-18, But Downgrades May Be Over:

Apple 6.5 Year Daily Technical Chart

Technical Indicators May Have Bottomed On Current Price Decline. The 50 Day vs. 200 Day Went Golden-Cross in Sept-2016 (see stars) at $100/Share, But Maybe Heading to Death-Cross If Current Price Is Not A Floor. Post iPhone Xs, XMax, & Xr Launches, Price is Same As 1 Year Ago when iPhone X Launched. Since The Oct-2018 Peak Price ($233/Share), Price Has Free Fell $55 (24%). Still Waiting For The Elusive Super Cycle, But iPhone ASPs (+28% Y/Y In FY Q4), and Services Growth Are Providing For Strong Fundamentals. Weak-Spots: The High-End Smartphone S-Cycle Has Peaked and Chinese Low-Cost OEMs are Here. The Fundamental Story Is Positive With A Boat-Load of Cash Going Towards Buy-Backs. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Climbed To $231.32, from $200.06 0n Jun-29-18, But Downgrades May Not Be Over:

Apple 5.5 Year Daily Technical Chart

Technical Indicators Look Great for a Continuation of The Current Break-out. The 50 Day vs. 200 Day Death-Cross in Aug-2015 Turned to a Golden-Cross Early in Sept-2016 (see stars) at $100/Share. Post iPhone 7, 8, & 10 Launches, Price is in a Nearly 1.5 Year Break-Out Above $128, After a 2 Year Consolidation Period. Since The Jul-2016 Bounce Off The Oct-2012 Peak Price ($90/Share) At The iPhone 5 Launch, Price Has Rocketed, More Than Doubling. The 10-Year Anniversary iPhone Was Not a Super Cycle, But The Trump Rally, iPhone ASP Strength, and Services Growth, Provided Strong Fundamentals. Weak-Spots: The High-End Smartphone S-Cycle Has Peaked and Chinese Low-Cost OEMs are Here. The Fundamental Story Is Positive With A Boat-Load of Cash Going Towards Buy-Backs. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Climbed To $200.06, from $171 Sep-01-17:

Intersting Fed Rate/Inflation Rate Observation

The Financial Press is talking a lot about the 10 Year - 2 Year Treasury Yield Inversions that generally proceed Recessions. Not noted, is the downward trend in the Fed Rate, largely believed to trigger it, and is concurent with lowering Peak Inflation Rates (PCE) pre-recession:

Apple 5 Year Daily Technical Chart

Technical Indicators Look Great For A Continued Run Up. 50 Day vs. 200 Day Death Cross in Aug-2015 Finally Turned to Golden Cross Early Sept-2016 (see stars). Post iPhone 7 Launch And FY Q2 2017 Results, Price Is In A Break-Out Above $128, After A 2 Year Consolidation Period. Since The Jul-2016 Bounce Off The Oct-2012 Peak Price At iPhone 5 Launch. Price Has Rocketed, Then Spurred/Stalled/Spurred As Of Late, Awaiting Run Up To 10-Year Anniversary iPhone Super Cycle. 2017 Potential Bright Spots; Trump Rally, iPhone 7 Strength, 10-Year Anniversary iPhone, Services, AI/AR, And Weakening Dollar (DXY -10% Year-to-Date). Weak-Spot; High-End Smartphone S-Cycle Probably Peaked, Chinese Low Cost OEMs. Fundamental Story Is Positive. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Climbed To $171, from $159 Jul-14-17: