Friday, November 30, 2018

Apple 6.5 Year Daily Technical Chart

Technical Indicators May Have Bottomed On Current Price Decline. The 50 Day vs. 200 Day Went Golden-Cross in Sept-2016 (see stars) at $100/Share, But Maybe Heading to Death-Cross If Current Price Is Not A Floor. Post iPhone Xs, XMax, & Xr Launches, Price is Same As 1 Year Ago when iPhone X Launched. Since The Oct-2018 Peak Price ($233/Share), Price Has Free Fell $55 (24%). Still Waiting For The Elusive Super Cycle, But iPhone ASPs (+28% Y/Y In FY Q4), and Services Growth Are Providing For Strong Fundamentals. Weak-Spots: The High-End Smartphone S-Cycle Has Peaked and Chinese Low-Cost OEMs are Here. The Fundamental Story Is Positive With A Boat-Load of Cash Going Towards Buy-Backs. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Climbed To $231.32, from $200.06 0n Jun-29-18, But Downgrades May Not Be Over:

Friday, June 29, 2018

Apple 5.5 Year Daily Technical Chart

Technical Indicators Look Great for a Continuation of The Current Break-out. The 50 Day vs. 200 Day Death-Cross in Aug-2015 Turned to a Golden-Cross Early in Sept-2016 (see stars) at $100/Share. Post iPhone 7, 8, & 10 Launches, Price is in a Nearly 1.5 Year Break-Out Above $128, After a 2 Year Consolidation Period. Since The Jul-2016 Bounce Off The Oct-2012 Peak Price ($90/Share) At The iPhone 5 Launch, Price Has Rocketed, More Than Doubling. The 10-Year Anniversary iPhone Was Not a Super Cycle, But The Trump Rally, iPhone ASP Strength, and Services Growth, Provided Strong Fundamentals. Weak-Spots: The High-End Smartphone S-Cycle Has Peaked and Chinese Low-Cost OEMs are Here. The Fundamental Story Is Positive With A Boat-Load of Cash Going Towards Buy-Backs. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Climbed To $200.06, from $171 Sep-01-17:

Thursday, June 14, 2018

Intersting Fed Rate/Inflation Rate Observation

The Financial Press is talking a lot about the 10 Year - 2 Year Treasury Yield Inversions that generally proceed Recessions. Not noted, is the downward trend in the Fed Rate, largely believed to trigger it, and is concurent with lowering Peak Inflation Rates (PCE) pre-recession: