Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Apple 2 Year Daily Technical Chart

50 Day vs. 200 Day Golden Cross-Over in Sept-2013. It Has Been "Off To The Races" Since Then, Culminating In This Week's Correction (consolidation? time will tell). Longer Term Move Has Been Higher Highs & Higher Lows As The Market Also Moves Higher. Fundamental Story is Still Strong. RSI Just Moved Out Of Over-Bought Territory And MACD Moved Negative. Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Grown to $120.21 from $115.53 on Oct. 31, 2014:

Thursday, November 13, 2014

Central Bank's Balance Sheets- Aug 2008 thru Oct 2014

The US Federal Reserve has decided to conclude its Asset Purchase Program (QE), once as high as $85B per month. Over the course of the US Fed's multiple easing programs, its Balance Sheet has grown on a percentage basis much more than any other major Central Bank. Currently, only the Bank of England comes close to the Fed's Balance Sheet expansion, with the Swiss next in line, but only acting defensively to prevent the Franc from appreciation beyond limits, keeping Swiss Industry globally competitive- Courtesy: @axelmerk

Friday, October 31, 2014

Apple 2 Year Daily Technical Chart

50 Day vs. 200 Day Golden Cross-Over in Sept-2013. It Has Been "Off To The Races" Since Then, Culminating In Today's New All Time High of $108, With Higher Highs & Higher Lows As The Market Also Moves Higher. Fundamental Story is Still Strong. RSI Just Moved Into Over-Bought Territory. Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Grown to $115.53 from $108.79 on Sept. 11, 2014:

Monday, October 13, 2014

Apple 2 Year Daily Technical Chart

50 Day vs. 200 Day Golden Cross-Over Sept-2013. Stabilizing Despite Overall Market Volatility. Fundamental Story is Still Strong. Consensus Analysts Est. Growing to $111.93 from $108.79 on Sept. 11:

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Apple 1 Year Daily Technical Chart

50 Day vs. 200 Day Golden Cross-Over in Sept-2013. 200 Day Crossing Lower Support Level in Jun-2014. Fundamental Story is Still Strong. Post Announcement, Consensus Analysts Est. $108.79:

Friday, August 8, 2014

BEA Prelim. July Rpt: Q2 2014 US GDP Strengthened to +4.0%, Up From Weak -2.1% Q1

Q2 report reverses negative trend (Up, then Down, now Up), up a huge 6.1% quarter-over-quarter, strength driven by Personal Consumption and Private Investment. Best GDP result in three quarters. Survey of 43 economists has consensus Real GDP of ~3.0% for second half of year:

Friday, August 1, 2014

Apple 1 Year Daily Technical Chart

50 Day vs. 200 Day Golden Cross-Over in Sept-2013. 200 Day Crossing Lower Support Level. Fundamental Story is Still Strong. $104.79 Consensus Analysts, $97 Price Target:

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

BEA Final June Rpt: Q1 2014 US GDP Weakened to -2.9%, Down From Modest +2.6% Q4

Q1 report continues negative move, off a huge 5.5% quarter-over-quarter, weakness driven by poor Private Investment and Exports. Worst non-ression GDP results in 58 years:

Thursday, June 19, 2014

May BLS Report: US Consumer Price Index Rose 2.14% Year Over Year

CPI averaged ~3.2% prior to the Financial Crisis recession, and is averaging ~2% post Crisis recovery, consistent with our slow-growth economy, despite massive stimulus:

Friday, June 6, 2014

Apple 1 Year Daily Technical Chart

MACD Strengthening. 50 Day vs. 200 Day Golden Cross-Over in Sept-2013. 200 Day Crossing Lower Support Level. Fundamental Story is Still Strong. $648.30 Consensus Analysts, $638 Price Target:

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Apple 5 Year Weekly Technical Chart

RSI Moving Into Over Bought. 50 Day vs. 200 Day Golden Cross-Over Aug-2013. Fundamentals Are Still Strong. $638 Price Target:

Apple 1 Year Daily Technical Chart

Hitting Upper Resistance. MACD Weakening. 50 Day vs. 200 Day Golden Cross-Over in Sept-2013. Fundamental Story is Still Strong. $638 Price Target:

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Alexander Fraser Tytler, Cycle of Democracy (1770)

A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until voters discover they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result a democracy always collapses over lousy fiscal policy,  followed by a dictatorship. The average of the world's great civilizations before they decline has been 200 years. These nations have progressed in this sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; from faith to great courage; from courage to liberty; from liberty to abundance; from abundance to selfishness; from selfishness to complacency; from complacency to apathy; from apathy to dependency; from dependency back again to bondage.

Friday, January 31, 2014

One Year Central Banks Balance Sheets Change vs. Currency X-Rate Change: Impotent Correlation On Weak-Inverse-Relationship

Central Banks Balance Sheets- BOJ, Fed, BOE, ECB (courtesy of @AxelMerk)
Currencies denominated in US Dollars- Euro, Pound, Yen:
The weak-inverse-relationship might partially be accounted for by the US Fed paying 0.25% to Federal Reserve banks to hold Reserves, thereby keeping this portion of the Monetary Base out of M2.

BEA Preliminary January Report: Q4 2013 US GDP Weakened to 3.2%, Down From Strong Q3 of 4.1%

Q4 report breaks the three-quarter positive trend ending in Q3, off 0.9% quarter-over-quarter, weakness driven by lower Private Investment and Government Spending:

Google 3 Yr % Change- In light of Revenue & Profit Trends, Stock Price is High

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Top Five Countries by GDP (Representing 50% of World GDP) 20 Year Index of Economic Freedom Score

Progress is disappointing! The US has been on a stead decline since peaking in 2007, after having achieved 'Free' country status (>80) from 2006 through 2010, the highest Economic Freedom grouping. The US has now slipped in the country rankings to 12th place. Germany, and Japan remain in the 'Mostly Free' camp, while France is stuck in the 'Moderatly Free' group. Only China and Germany have improved over the 20 Yrs:

Top Five Countries by GDP (Representing 50% of World GDP) 20 Year Index of Economic Freedom % Change

Only China and Germany have improved over the 20 year span, yet China languishes in the 'Mostly Unfree' bracket of countries. The US, Germany, and Japan remain in the 'Mostly Free' camp, while France is stuck in the 'Moderatly Free' group:

Friday, January 10, 2014

20 Year S&P 500 Valuation Growth vs. GDP Growth

In Nominal terms, the S&P 500 has grown 289% over the past 20 years, compared to 160% for the S&P GDP (approximation based on 50/50 sales mix proportions; World GDP 182%, and US 137%): 
Below statement added January 30, 2014: In full disclosure, market capitalization (not presently available) would be a better way to look at this, because there have been unprecedented stock repurchases in the S&P500, which are not reflected in my graph.

I have calculated what I feel is the appropriate factor range, 22% to 48.6%, to subtract from the "20 Year S&P 500 Valuation Growth vs. GDP Growth" chart above. Here is the chart used showing my calculation method- 20 Year S&P 500 Shares Buybacks Estimate As Percent of Market Capitalization: Blog Post

Therefore, the 20 Year S&P 500 Price change of 289.3%, when adjusted for stock repurchases, has a adjusted gain in the 267.3% to 240.7% range, with a mid-point of 254%. Compared to an estimated S&P 500 GDP change of 160%. Expressed another way, over 20 years the S&P 500 Price, adjusted for stock repurchases, changed 94% > S&P 500 GDP.

US Labor Department December Report / US Federal Reserve Taper

Today, US Non-Farm Payrolls reported a paltry 74K increase in December, short of the 200K jobs economist consensus had expected. Unemployment fell to 6.7%, but the U6 Total Unemployment was unchanged above a troubling 13%. The Civilian Labor Force Participation fell to a disturbingly low 62.8%:
The very low Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate has not been this low since 1978, which may be a significant factor in the US Federal Reserve's Taper decisions, overshadowing the improved but somewhat deceptive Unemployment Rate improvement. I expect the Fed's next move will be to maintain its bond buying program at $75B or reduce it by only a modest $10B (consistent with last move):