Real story about +2.6% GDP in Q3, improved from -0.6% in Q2

Personal Consumption declined from 2% to 1.4%. Investments improved from -14.1% to -8.5%. Imports declined from +2.2% to -6.9% (positive for GDP). Government Spending increased from -1.6% to +2.4%, with Fed petal swinging +7.1% Q/Q, the whopper! 

Consumer Confidence dipped to 102.5 in October. This level indicated we were in or going into Recession the last 5 times

S&P 500 Change in Forward 12-Month EPS vs. Change in Price:

Source: FactSet

In a dozen Recessions since WWII, on average, Real GDP contracted by 2.5%, Unemployment rose 3.8%, Corporate Profit fell 15%, & 10 months Recession length⁦‪‬⁩

Courtesy Bloomberg:

JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI – fell to 49.8

JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI – fell to 49.8 in September, down from 50.3 in August. This is the first time that the headline PMI has posted below the neutral 50.0 mark since June 2020