Total US Debt Now Stands at 3.6X GDP

Total US debt is now a staggering 3.6X that of Gross Domestic Product. This is a crazy high number that can only end badly. The consumer has been lightening its load, but Corporate debt and Government debt are out of control. Socialism ruins!

Apple 6.6 Year Daily Technical Chart

Technical Indicators Bottomed and Bounce Back On Extreme Price Decline to $142 and Partial Rebound to $172. The 50 Day vs. 200 Day Went Death-Cross in Dec-2018 (see stars) At $191/Share. Post iPhone Xs, XsMax, Xr Launches, and Q1 Earnings; Price Has Roller-Coastered, But Is Well Off The Oct-2018 Peak Price ($233/Share). Price Is Off $61 (26%). Still Waiting For The Elusive Super Cycle (maybe 5G). iPhone Revenues Were -15% Y/Y In The Holiday FY Q1, While Services Growth Was +27% (wo/adjustments) and Profits Were Flat At $20B. Amazingly, After All The Hubbub, iPhones Actually Grew Marketshare 0.4% in China's CY 2018 Smartphones Market, According to Strategy Analytics. I Think Tim Cook Is Right; Xs/Max Launch In CY Q3 2018 vs. X Launch In CY Q4 2017, Was A Hugh Factor In The Big CY Q4 iPhone Hole, -2.9M iPhones. I See Strong Fundamentals, With A Boat-Load of Cash Going Towards Buy-Backs. Weak-Spots: The Smartphone S-Cycle Has Peaked and Chinese Low-Cost OEMs are Here. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Collapsed To $178.49, From $231.32 On Nov-30-18, But Downgrades May Be Over:

Apple 6.5 Year Daily Technical Chart

Technical Indicators May Have Bottomed On Current Price Decline. The 50 Day vs. 200 Day Went Golden-Cross in Sept-2016 (see stars) at $100/Share, But Maybe Heading to Death-Cross If Current Price Is Not A Floor. Post iPhone Xs, XMax, & Xr Launches, Price is Same As 1 Year Ago when iPhone X Launched. Since The Oct-2018 Peak Price ($233/Share), Price Has Free Fell $55 (24%). Still Waiting For The Elusive Super Cycle, But iPhone ASPs (+28% Y/Y In FY Q4), and Services Growth Are Providing For Strong Fundamentals. Weak-Spots: The High-End Smartphone S-Cycle Has Peaked and Chinese Low-Cost OEMs are Here. The Fundamental Story Is Positive With A Boat-Load of Cash Going Towards Buy-Backs. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Climbed To $231.32, from $200.06 0n Jun-29-18, But Downgrades May Not Be Over:

Apple 5.5 Year Daily Technical Chart

Technical Indicators Look Great for a Continuation of The Current Break-out. The 50 Day vs. 200 Day Death-Cross in Aug-2015 Turned to a Golden-Cross Early in Sept-2016 (see stars) at $100/Share. Post iPhone 7, 8, & 10 Launches, Price is in a Nearly 1.5 Year Break-Out Above $128, After a 2 Year Consolidation Period. Since The Jul-2016 Bounce Off The Oct-2012 Peak Price ($90/Share) At The iPhone 5 Launch, Price Has Rocketed, More Than Doubling. The 10-Year Anniversary iPhone Was Not a Super Cycle, But The Trump Rally, iPhone ASP Strength, and Services Growth, Provided Strong Fundamentals. Weak-Spots: The High-End Smartphone S-Cycle Has Peaked and Chinese Low-Cost OEMs are Here. The Fundamental Story Is Positive With A Boat-Load of Cash Going Towards Buy-Backs. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Climbed To $200.06, from $171 Sep-01-17:

Intersting Fed Rate/Inflation Rate Observation

The Financial Press is talking a lot about the 10 Year - 2 Year Treasury Yield Inversions that generally proceed Recessions. Not noted, is the downward trend in the Fed Rate, largely believed to trigger it, and is concurent with lowering Peak Inflation Rates (PCE) pre-recession:

Apple 5 Year Daily Technical Chart

Technical Indicators Look Great For A Continued Run Up. 50 Day vs. 200 Day Death Cross in Aug-2015 Finally Turned to Golden Cross Early Sept-2016 (see stars). Post iPhone 7 Launch And FY Q2 2017 Results, Price Is In A Break-Out Above $128, After A 2 Year Consolidation Period. Since The Jul-2016 Bounce Off The Oct-2012 Peak Price At iPhone 5 Launch. Price Has Rocketed, Then Spurred/Stalled/Spurred As Of Late, Awaiting Run Up To 10-Year Anniversary iPhone Super Cycle. 2017 Potential Bright Spots; Trump Rally, iPhone 7 Strength, 10-Year Anniversary iPhone, Services, AI/AR, And Weakening Dollar (DXY -10% Year-to-Date). Weak-Spot; High-End Smartphone S-Cycle Probably Peaked, Chinese Low Cost OEMs. Fundamental Story Is Positive. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Climbed To $171, from $159 Jul-14-17:

Apple 5 Year Daily Technical Chart

Technical Indicators Look Great For A Continued Run Up. 50 Day vs. 200 Day Death Cross in Aug-2015 Finally Turned to Golden Cross Early Sept-2016 (see stars). Post iPhone 7 Launch And FY Q2 2017 Results, Price Is In A Break-Out Above $128, After A 2 Year Consolidation Period. Since The Jul-2016 Bounce Off The Oct-2012 Peak Price At iPhone 5 Launch. Price Has Rocketed, Then Spurred/Stalled As Of Late, Awaiting Run Up To 10-Year Anniversary iPhone Super Cycle. 2017 Potential Bright Spots; Trump Rally, iPhone 7 Strength, 10-Year Anniversary iPhone, Services, And AI/AR. Weak-Spot; High-End Smartphone S-Cycle Probably Peaked, Strong Dollar (DXY +17.5% In 3 Years). Fundamental Story Is Positive. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Climbed To $159, from $139.19 Feb-10-17:

Apple 5 Year Daily Technical Chart

Technical Indicators Look Great For A Continued Run Up. 50 Day vs. 200 Day Death Cross in Aug-2015 Finally Turned to Golden Cross Early Sept-2016 (see stars). Post FY Q1 2017 Results (Holiday Quarter) And iPhone 7 Launch, Price Appears To Be In A Break-Out Above $130, 2 Year Consolidation Period. Since Jul-2016 Bounce Off Oct-2012 Peak Price At iPhone 5 Launch, Price Has Spurred/Stalled, Finally Climbing Out Of $130 Consolidation Ceiling. 2017 Potential Bright Spots; Trump Rally, iPhone 7 Strength, 10-Year Anniversary iPhone, And Services. Weak-Spot; High-End Smartphone S-Cycle May Have Peaked, Strong Dollar (DXY +25% In 3 Years). Fundamental Story Is Positive. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Climbed To $139.19, From $131.96 On December 30, 2016:

Apple 5 Year Daily Technical Chart

Technical Indicators Look good For A Run Up. 50 Day vs. 200 Day Death Cross in Aug-2015 Finally Turned to Golden Cross Early Sept-2016 (see stars). Post FY Q4 2016 Results And iPhone 7 Launch, Pricing Has Been Sanguine. Jul-2016 Bounce Off Oct-2013 Peak Price At iPhone 5 Launch, Stalled Below $120. 2017 Potential Bright Spots; iPhone 7 Holiday Results, 10-Year Anniversary iPhone, And Services. Weak-Spot; High-End Smartphone S-Cycle May Have Peaked. Fundamental Story Is Neutral. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Climbed To $131.96, From $124.11 On September 3, 2016:

Apple 5 Year Daily Technical Chart

Technical Indicators Looking Outstanding For A Run Up. 50 Day vs. 200 Day Death Cross in Aug-2015 Has Finally Turned to Golden Cross Early Sept-2016 (see star). Post FY Q3 2016 Results, Finally Seeing Encouraging Price Gains Above Top of Negative Megaphone Pattern. As of Jul-2016, Bouncing Off Oct-2013 Peak At iPhone 5 Launch. 2016 Potential Bright Spot Still The Patterned Run-Up In Months Proceeding New Integer iPhone Launches, Now Less Than A Week Away. Has High-End Smartphone S-Cycle Peaked? Apple May Be Helped By Galaxy Note 7 Recall For Exploding Batteries. Fundamental Story Is Neutral On Compare to iPhone 6/+. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Climbed To $124.11, From $123.86 On July 29, 2016:

US Labor Department August Report

Post-Recession Unemployment has improved dramatically from a high of 10%, to the current 4.9%, but the US Economy added only 151K Jobs in August. Employment, as measured by Labor Participation, is down from a Recession high of 66.2%, to the current disappointing 62.8%, suggesting most of the improvement in Unemployment is the result of people leaving the Labor Force. Total Unemployment (blue line) at 9.7% lends support to the position of a weak job environment:

Apple 5 Year Daily Technical Chart

50 Day vs. 200 Day Death Cross in Aug-2015. FY Q3 2016 Results Better Than Bad, Encouraged Gains Back to Top of Negative Megaphone Pattern, Bouncing Off Oct-13 Peak At iPhone 5 Launch, 3.75 Years Ago. 2016 Potential Bright Spot Still The Patterned Run-Up In Months Proceeding New Integer iPhone Launches, Unless The High-End Smartphone S-Cycle Has Peaked. Fundamental Story Is Negative On Compare to iPhone 6/+. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Dropped To $123.86, From $125.95 On April 29, 2016:

US Government Spending In 2015 Grew By 3.6%, & Debt Grew By $327B to $18.15T

US Labor Department June Report

Post-Recession Unemployment has improved dramatically from a high of 10%, to the current 4.9%, with the US Economy adding 287K Jobs in June. Employment, as measured by Labor Participation, is down from a Recession high of 66.2%, to the current 62.7%, but suggests most of the improvement in Unemployment is the result of people leaving the Labor Force. Total Unemployment (blue line) at 9.6% lend support to the position of a weak job environment:

Apple 5 Year Daily Technical Chart

50 Day vs. 200 Day Death Cross in Aug-2015. FY Q2 2016 Results Disappointed And Retraced All Gains Since iPhone 6/+ Launch, Matching Oct-13 Peak At iPhone 5 Launch, 3.5 Years Ago. 2016 Bright Spot Still The Patterned Run-Up In Months Proceeding New Integer iPhone Launches, Unless The High-End Smartphone S-Cycle Has Peaked. Fundamental Story Is Neutral. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Dropped To $125.95, From $142.67 On January 22, 2016:

US Labor Department December Report

Post-Recession Unemployment has improved dramatically from a high of 10%, to the current 5.0%, with the US Economy adding 292K Jobs in December. Employment, as measured by Labor Participation, is down from a Recession high of 66.2%, to the current 62.6%, suggesting most of the improvement in Unemployment is the result of people leaving the Labor Force, but it is finally trending up in Q4:

Apple 5.2 Year Daily Technical Chart

2015 Was A Doldrum And Declining Year, Causing A 50 Day vs. 200 Day Death Cross in Aug-2015 And Retraced All Gains Since iPhone 6/+ Launch. 2016 Bright Spot Is The Patterned Run-Up In Months Proceeding New Integer iPhone Launches, Unless The High-End Smartphone S-Cycle Has Peaked. Fundamental Story Is Strong. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Dropped To $142.67, From $148.88 On October 30, 2015:

Apple 2.5 Year Daily Technical Chart

After An Early Run Up, It Has Been Doldrum And Declining Year, Causing A 50 Day vs. 200 Day Death Cross-Over in Aug-2015. It Has Been A Steady Climb Leading Into Q4 Earnings Which Beat Expectations. RSI And MACD Are Strongly Positive Heading Into the Holidays, As Price Is Poised To Push Past Second Level Resistance. Fundamental Story Is Strong After A Healthy Quarter, And The Upcoming Holidays. Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Grown To $148.88, From $146.88 On August 14, 2015:

Apple 2.5 Year Daily Technical Chart

50 Day vs. 200 Day Golden Cross-Over in Sept-2013. It Has Been A Steady Climb Since, With A December Correction/Consolidation, February Climb, Culminating In The Current Three-Month Price Consolidation. Longer Term Move Has Been Mostly Higher Highs & Higher Lows, With Today's Monthly-Close Price At A Historic High. RSI And MACD Are Moving Positive, But Are Uncertain, As Price Struggles To Push Past Resistance. Fundamental Story Is Strong After An Amazing Quarter, Watch Launch And Upcoming WWDC. Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Grown To Highest Level, $148.75 From $147.8 On May 1, 2015:

US Government Spending In 2014 Grew By 4%, & Debt Grew By $600B to $18.1T