10 yr-2 yr Treasuries, -0.51 Yield Curve Inversion

August 1981 is the last time the Yield Curve Inversion was higher than today. The two-year is yielding 4.7%, astoundingly high. The inversion is a very strong signal of recession.

In a dozen Recessions since WWII, on average, Real GDP contracted by 2.5%, Unemployment rose 3.8%, Corporate Profit fell 15%, & 10 months Recession length⁦‪‬⁩

Courtesy Bloomberg:

One Can’t Say the US Fed is Hawkish

The Fed's Balance Sheet is nearly $9 Trillion. Quantitative Tightening is talking down the Balance Sheet $100 Billion a month. At this rate it will take ~5 years to normalize the Balance Sheet. With a looming disaster this large (including $30 Trillion in Government Debt) it is hard to say what the right thing is to do:

US National Debt is > $30T & Growing Exponentially! Big Government Ruins

The US National Debt rate has increased about doubled in the past 20 years. Even a child understands you have to live within your means, but our Federal Government has taken us from being Freedom Fighters to unstable Debt-Enslaved Nation:

Where We Are Heading:

Dollar Index $DXY is now strongest it has been since just after the Tech Bubble pop in the early 2000s

Pundits on all sides are miss-reading the effect of fiscal & monetary policy. In a Worldwide Crisis the $, as the World Reserve Currency, is the place to be. Strength in Safety:

Total US Debt Now Stands at 3.6X GDP

Total US debt is now a staggering 3.6X that of Gross Domestic Product. This is a crazy high number that can only end badly. The consumer has been lightening its load, but Corporate debt and Government debt are out of control. Socialism ruins!

US Government Spending In 2015 Grew By 3.6%, & Debt Grew By $327B to $18.15T

US Government Spending In 2014 Grew By 4%, & Debt Grew By $600B to $18.1T

US Debt Default Averted, Yet Debt Crisis More Real Than Ever- Adding $1T/Yr to $17T, Not Counting Unfunded Liabilities

Adam Smith on Public Debt

Courtesy of the WSJ: From Adam Smith's "The Wealth of Nations," 1776

The public funds of the different indebted nations of Europe, particularly those of England, have by one author been represented as the accumulation of a great capital superadded to the other capital of the country, by means of which its trade is extended, its manufactures multiplied, and its lands cultivated and improved much beyond what they could have been by means of that other capital only. He does not consider that the capital which the first creditors of the public advanced to government was, from the moment in which they advanced it, a certain portion of the annual produce turned away from serving in the function of a capital to serve in that of a revenue; from maintaining productive labourers to maintain unproductive ones, and to be spent and wasted, generally in the course of the year, without even the hope of any future reproduction.

Dynamic Country Debt Chart:

Nation-by-Nation Debt Levels Since 1990 | http://t.co/ggBhbtRsMm

Courtesy of the WSJ