Apple 6.6 Year Daily Technical Chart

Technical Indicators Bottomed and Bounce Back On Extreme Price Decline to $142 and Partial Rebound to $172. The 50 Day vs. 200 Day Went Death-Cross in Dec-2018 (see stars) At $191/Share. Post iPhone Xs, XsMax, Xr Launches, and Q1 Earnings; Price Has Roller-Coastered, But Is Well Off The Oct-2018 Peak Price ($233/Share). Price Is Off $61 (26%). Still Waiting For The Elusive Super Cycle (maybe 5G). iPhone Revenues Were -15% Y/Y In The Holiday FY Q1, While Services Growth Was +27% (wo/adjustments) and Profits Were Flat At $20B. Amazingly, After All The Hubbub, iPhones Actually Grew Marketshare 0.4% in China's CY 2018 Smartphones Market, According to Strategy Analytics. I Think Tim Cook Is Right; Xs/Max Launch In CY Q3 2018 vs. X Launch In CY Q4 2017, Was A Hugh Factor In The Big CY Q4 iPhone Hole, -2.9M iPhones. I See Strong Fundamentals, With A Boat-Load of Cash Going Towards Buy-Backs. Weak-Spots: The Smartphone S-Cycle Has Peaked and Chinese Low-Cost OEMs are Here. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Collapsed To $178.49, From $231.32 On Nov-30-18, But Downgrades May Be Over:

Apple 6.5 Year Daily Technical Chart

Technical Indicators May Have Bottomed On Current Price Decline. The 50 Day vs. 200 Day Went Golden-Cross in Sept-2016 (see stars) at $100/Share, But Maybe Heading to Death-Cross If Current Price Is Not A Floor. Post iPhone Xs, XMax, & Xr Launches, Price is Same As 1 Year Ago when iPhone X Launched. Since The Oct-2018 Peak Price ($233/Share), Price Has Free Fell $55 (24%). Still Waiting For The Elusive Super Cycle, But iPhone ASPs (+28% Y/Y In FY Q4), and Services Growth Are Providing For Strong Fundamentals. Weak-Spots: The High-End Smartphone S-Cycle Has Peaked and Chinese Low-Cost OEMs are Here. The Fundamental Story Is Positive With A Boat-Load of Cash Going Towards Buy-Backs. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Climbed To $231.32, from $200.06 0n Jun-29-18, But Downgrades May Not Be Over:

Apple 5.5 Year Daily Technical Chart

Technical Indicators Look Great for a Continuation of The Current Break-out. The 50 Day vs. 200 Day Death-Cross in Aug-2015 Turned to a Golden-Cross Early in Sept-2016 (see stars) at $100/Share. Post iPhone 7, 8, & 10 Launches, Price is in a Nearly 1.5 Year Break-Out Above $128, After a 2 Year Consolidation Period. Since The Jul-2016 Bounce Off The Oct-2012 Peak Price ($90/Share) At The iPhone 5 Launch, Price Has Rocketed, More Than Doubling. The 10-Year Anniversary iPhone Was Not a Super Cycle, But The Trump Rally, iPhone ASP Strength, and Services Growth, Provided Strong Fundamentals. Weak-Spots: The High-End Smartphone S-Cycle Has Peaked and Chinese Low-Cost OEMs are Here. The Fundamental Story Is Positive With A Boat-Load of Cash Going Towards Buy-Backs. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Climbed To $200.06, from $171 Sep-01-17:

Apple 5 Year Daily Technical Chart

Technical Indicators Look Great For A Continued Run Up. 50 Day vs. 200 Day Death Cross in Aug-2015 Finally Turned to Golden Cross Early Sept-2016 (see stars). Post iPhone 7 Launch And FY Q2 2017 Results, Price Is In A Break-Out Above $128, After A 2 Year Consolidation Period. Since The Jul-2016 Bounce Off The Oct-2012 Peak Price At iPhone 5 Launch. Price Has Rocketed, Then Spurred/Stalled/Spurred As Of Late, Awaiting Run Up To 10-Year Anniversary iPhone Super Cycle. 2017 Potential Bright Spots; Trump Rally, iPhone 7 Strength, 10-Year Anniversary iPhone, Services, AI/AR, And Weakening Dollar (DXY -10% Year-to-Date). Weak-Spot; High-End Smartphone S-Cycle Probably Peaked, Chinese Low Cost OEMs. Fundamental Story Is Positive. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Climbed To $171, from $159 Jul-14-17:

Apple 5 Year Daily Technical Chart

Technical Indicators Look Great For A Continued Run Up. 50 Day vs. 200 Day Death Cross in Aug-2015 Finally Turned to Golden Cross Early Sept-2016 (see stars). Post iPhone 7 Launch And FY Q2 2017 Results, Price Is In A Break-Out Above $128, After A 2 Year Consolidation Period. Since The Jul-2016 Bounce Off The Oct-2012 Peak Price At iPhone 5 Launch. Price Has Rocketed, Then Spurred/Stalled As Of Late, Awaiting Run Up To 10-Year Anniversary iPhone Super Cycle. 2017 Potential Bright Spots; Trump Rally, iPhone 7 Strength, 10-Year Anniversary iPhone, Services, And AI/AR. Weak-Spot; High-End Smartphone S-Cycle Probably Peaked, Strong Dollar (DXY +17.5% In 3 Years). Fundamental Story Is Positive. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Climbed To $159, from $139.19 Feb-10-17:

Apple 5 Year Daily Technical Chart

Technical Indicators Look Great For A Continued Run Up. 50 Day vs. 200 Day Death Cross in Aug-2015 Finally Turned to Golden Cross Early Sept-2016 (see stars). Post FY Q1 2017 Results (Holiday Quarter) And iPhone 7 Launch, Price Appears To Be In A Break-Out Above $130, 2 Year Consolidation Period. Since Jul-2016 Bounce Off Oct-2012 Peak Price At iPhone 5 Launch, Price Has Spurred/Stalled, Finally Climbing Out Of $130 Consolidation Ceiling. 2017 Potential Bright Spots; Trump Rally, iPhone 7 Strength, 10-Year Anniversary iPhone, And Services. Weak-Spot; High-End Smartphone S-Cycle May Have Peaked, Strong Dollar (DXY +25% In 3 Years). Fundamental Story Is Positive. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Climbed To $139.19, From $131.96 On December 30, 2016:

Apple 5 Year Daily Technical Chart

Technical Indicators Look good For A Run Up. 50 Day vs. 200 Day Death Cross in Aug-2015 Finally Turned to Golden Cross Early Sept-2016 (see stars). Post FY Q4 2016 Results And iPhone 7 Launch, Pricing Has Been Sanguine. Jul-2016 Bounce Off Oct-2013 Peak Price At iPhone 5 Launch, Stalled Below $120. 2017 Potential Bright Spots; iPhone 7 Holiday Results, 10-Year Anniversary iPhone, And Services. Weak-Spot; High-End Smartphone S-Cycle May Have Peaked. Fundamental Story Is Neutral. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Climbed To $131.96, From $124.11 On September 3, 2016:

Apple 5 Year Daily Technical Chart

Technical Indicators Looking Outstanding For A Run Up. 50 Day vs. 200 Day Death Cross in Aug-2015 Has Finally Turned to Golden Cross Early Sept-2016 (see star). Post FY Q3 2016 Results, Finally Seeing Encouraging Price Gains Above Top of Negative Megaphone Pattern. As of Jul-2016, Bouncing Off Oct-2013 Peak At iPhone 5 Launch. 2016 Potential Bright Spot Still The Patterned Run-Up In Months Proceeding New Integer iPhone Launches, Now Less Than A Week Away. Has High-End Smartphone S-Cycle Peaked? Apple May Be Helped By Galaxy Note 7 Recall For Exploding Batteries. Fundamental Story Is Neutral On Compare to iPhone 6/+. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Climbed To $124.11, From $123.86 On July 29, 2016:

Apple 5 Year Daily Technical Chart

50 Day vs. 200 Day Death Cross in Aug-2015. FY Q3 2016 Results Better Than Bad, Encouraged Gains Back to Top of Negative Megaphone Pattern, Bouncing Off Oct-13 Peak At iPhone 5 Launch, 3.75 Years Ago. 2016 Potential Bright Spot Still The Patterned Run-Up In Months Proceeding New Integer iPhone Launches, Unless The High-End Smartphone S-Cycle Has Peaked. Fundamental Story Is Negative On Compare to iPhone 6/+. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Dropped To $123.86, From $125.95 On April 29, 2016:

Apple 5 Year Daily Technical Chart

50 Day vs. 200 Day Death Cross in Aug-2015. FY Q2 2016 Results Disappointed And Retraced All Gains Since iPhone 6/+ Launch, Matching Oct-13 Peak At iPhone 5 Launch, 3.5 Years Ago. 2016 Bright Spot Still The Patterned Run-Up In Months Proceeding New Integer iPhone Launches, Unless The High-End Smartphone S-Cycle Has Peaked. Fundamental Story Is Neutral. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Dropped To $125.95, From $142.67 On January 22, 2016:

Apple 5.2 Year Daily Technical Chart

2015 Was A Doldrum And Declining Year, Causing A 50 Day vs. 200 Day Death Cross in Aug-2015 And Retraced All Gains Since iPhone 6/+ Launch. 2016 Bright Spot Is The Patterned Run-Up In Months Proceeding New Integer iPhone Launches, Unless The High-End Smartphone S-Cycle Has Peaked. Fundamental Story Is Strong. One-Year Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Dropped To $142.67, From $148.88 On October 30, 2015:

Apple 2.5 Year Daily Technical Chart

After An Early Run Up, It Has Been Doldrum And Declining Year, Causing A 50 Day vs. 200 Day Death Cross-Over in Aug-2015. It Has Been A Steady Climb Leading Into Q4 Earnings Which Beat Expectations. RSI And MACD Are Strongly Positive Heading Into the Holidays, As Price Is Poised To Push Past Second Level Resistance. Fundamental Story Is Strong After A Healthy Quarter, And The Upcoming Holidays. Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Grown To $148.88, From $146.88 On August 14, 2015:

Apple 2.5 Year Daily Technical Chart

50 Day vs. 200 Day Golden Cross-Over in Sept-2013. It Has Been A Steady Climb Since, With A December Correction/Consolidation, February Climb, Culminating In The Current Three-Month Price Consolidation. Longer Term Move Has Been Mostly Higher Highs & Higher Lows, With Today's Monthly-Close Price At A Historic High. RSI And MACD Are Moving Positive, But Are Uncertain, As Price Struggles To Push Past Resistance. Fundamental Story Is Strong After An Amazing Quarter, Watch Launch And Upcoming WWDC. Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Grown To Highest Level, $148.75 From $147.8 On May 1, 2015:

Apple 2.5 Year Daily Technical Chart

50 Day vs. 200 Day Golden Cross-Over in Sept-2013. It Has Been A Steady Climb Since Then, Culminating In A December Correction/Consolidation, February Climb, And Current Price Consolidation Post-Q2 Earnings. Longer Term Move Has Been Higher Highs & Mostly Higher Lows As The Market Also Moved Higher, Consistent With Today's 3% Increase. RSI And MACD Are Moving Positive, But Are Uncertain, As Price Struggles To Push Past Pivot And 50 Day MA. Fundamental Story Is Strong After An Amazing Quarter And Watch Launch. Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Grown To Highest Level, $147.80 From $134.61 On Feb. 27, 2015:

Apple 2.5 Year Daily Technical Chart

50 Day vs. 200 Day Golden Cross-Over in Sept-2013. It Has Been A Steady Climb Since Then, Culminating In A December Correction/Consolidation, and Current Gap-Up/Run-Up Post-Q1 Earnings. Longer Term Move Has Been Higher Highs & Mostly Higher Lows As The Market Also Moved Higher, Despite Today's 1.5% Price Decline. RSI And MACD Had A Strong Positive Move, But May Have Run Out of Steam, As Price Struggles to Push Past 2nd Level Resistance. Fundamental Story Is Still Strong After An Amazing Quarter and Looming Watch Launch. Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Grown to $134.61 from $129.19 on January 30, 2015:

Apple 2.5 Year Daily Technical Chart

50 Day vs. 200 Day Golden Cross-Over in Sept-2013. It Has Been A Steady Climb Since Then, Culminating In a December Correction, Consolidation, and Current Gap Up Post-Q1 Earnings. Longer Term Move Has Been Higher Highs & Higher Lows As The Market Also Moved Higher. Fundamental Story is Still Strong After An Amazing Quarter That Reported Nearly 75M iPhone Sales. RSI And MACD Are Moving Positive, Despite Today's 1.5% Price Decline. Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Grown to $129.19 from $122.12 on Jan. 8, 2015:

Apple 2.5 Year Daily Technical Chart

50 Day vs. 200 Day Golden Cross-Over in Sept-2013. It Has Been "Off To The Races" Since Then, Culminating In a Dec. Correction and Current Consolidation. Longer Term Move Has Been Higher Highs & Higher Lows As The Market Also Moved Higher. Fundamental Story is Still Strong. RSI And MACD Moving Positive. Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Grown to $122.12 from $120.21 on Dec. 2, 2014:

Apple 2 Year Daily Technical Chart

50 Day vs. 200 Day Golden Cross-Over in Sept-2013. It Has Been "Off To The Races" Since Then, Culminating In This Week's Correction (consolidation? time will tell). Longer Term Move Has Been Higher Highs & Higher Lows As The Market Also Moves Higher. Fundamental Story is Still Strong. RSI Just Moved Out Of Over-Bought Territory And MACD Moved Negative. Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Grown to $120.21 from $115.53 on Oct. 31, 2014:

Apple 2 Year Daily Technical Chart

50 Day vs. 200 Day Golden Cross-Over in Sept-2013. It Has Been "Off To The Races" Since Then, Culminating In Today's New All Time High of $108, With Higher Highs & Higher Lows As The Market Also Moves Higher. Fundamental Story is Still Strong. RSI Just Moved Into Over-Bought Territory. Consensus Analysts Estimate Has Grown to $115.53 from $108.79 on Sept. 11, 2014:

Apple 2 Year Daily Technical Chart

50 Day vs. 200 Day Golden Cross-Over Sept-2013. Stabilizing Despite Overall Market Volatility. Fundamental Story is Still Strong. Consensus Analysts Est. Growing to $111.93 from $108.79 on Sept. 11: