In a dozen Recessions since WWII, on average, Real GDP contracted by 2.5%, Unemployment rose 3.8%, Corporate Profit fell 15%, & 10 months Recession length⁦‪‬⁩

Courtesy Bloomberg:

JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI – fell to 49.8

JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI – fell to 49.8 in September, down from 50.3 in August. This is the first time that the headline PMI has posted below the neutral 50.0 mark since June 2020

One Can’t Say the US Fed is Hawkish

The Fed's Balance Sheet is nearly $9 Trillion. Quantitative Tightening is talking down the Balance Sheet $100 Billion a month. At this rate it will take ~5 years to normalize the Balance Sheet. With a looming disaster this large (including $30 Trillion in Government Debt) it is hard to say what the right thing is to do:

S&P 500 not as cheap as it looks, Forward P/E is just about at the 10 year average

May Labor Participation Rate of 62.3%, just 0.1% better than April, stayed below pre-COVID numbers, dampening the May Job growth news of 390K