Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Top Five Countries by GDP (Representing 50% of World GDP) 20 Year Index of Economic Freedom % Change

Only China and Germany have improved over the 20 year span, yet China languishes in the 'Mostly Unfree' bracket of countries. The US, Germany, and Japan remain in the 'Mostly Free' camp, while France is stuck in the 'Moderatly Free' group:

Friday, January 10, 2014

20 Year S&P 500 Valuation Growth vs. GDP Growth

In Nominal terms, the S&P 500 has grown 289% over the past 20 years, compared to 160% for the S&P GDP (approximation based on 50/50 sales mix proportions; World GDP 182%, and US 137%): 
Below statement added January 30, 2014: In full disclosure, market capitalization (not presently available) would be a better way to look at this, because there have been unprecedented stock repurchases in the S&P500, which are not reflected in my graph.

I have calculated what I feel is the appropriate factor range, 22% to 48.6%, to subtract from the "20 Year S&P 500 Valuation Growth vs. GDP Growth" chart above. Here is the chart used showing my calculation method- 20 Year S&P 500 Shares Buybacks Estimate As Percent of Market Capitalization: Blog Post

Therefore, the 20 Year S&P 500 Price change of 289.3%, when adjusted for stock repurchases, has a adjusted gain in the 267.3% to 240.7% range, with a mid-point of 254%. Compared to an estimated S&P 500 GDP change of 160%. Expressed another way, over 20 years the S&P 500 Price, adjusted for stock repurchases, changed 94% > S&P 500 GDP.

US Labor Department December Report / US Federal Reserve Taper

Today, US Non-Farm Payrolls reported a paltry 74K increase in December, short of the 200K jobs economist consensus had expected. Unemployment fell to 6.7%, but the U6 Total Unemployment was unchanged above a troubling 13%. The Civilian Labor Force Participation fell to a disturbingly low 62.8%:
The very low Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate has not been this low since 1978, which may be a significant factor in the US Federal Reserve's Taper decisions, overshadowing the improved but somewhat deceptive Unemployment Rate improvement. I expect the Fed's next move will be to maintain its bond buying program at $75B or reduce it by only a modest $10B (consistent with last move):

Friday, December 20, 2013

BEA Final December Report: Q3 2013 US GDP Even Strong 4.1% Revised Up from 3.6%

Report establishes a three-quarter positive trend, driven by private investment in larger inventory levels:


Wednesday, December 18, 2013

US Federal Reserve Taper / US Labor Department November Report

Post-Recession Unemployment has improved 3%, while Employment is down a concerning 3%, a significant factor in the US Fed's decision to only modestly taper its Asset Purchase Program by $10B per month: