Only China and Germany have improved over the 20 year span, yet China languishes in the 'Mostly Unfree' bracket of countries. The US, Germany, and Japan remain in the 'Mostly Free' camp, while France is stuck in the 'Moderatly Free' group:
Tuesday, January 28, 2014
Friday, January 10, 2014
20 Year S&P 500 Valuation Growth vs. GDP Growth
In Nominal terms, the S&P 500 has grown 289% over the past 20 years, compared to 160% for the S&P GDP (approximation based on 50/50 sales mix proportions; World GDP 182%, and US 137%):
Below statement added January 30, 2014: In full disclosure, market capitalization (not presently available) would be a better way to look at this, because there have been unprecedented stock repurchases in the S&P500, which are not reflected in my graph.
I have calculated what I feel is the appropriate factor range, 22% to 48.6%, to subtract from the "20 Year S&P 500 Valuation Growth vs. GDP Growth" chart above. Here is the chart used showing my calculation method- 20 Year S&P 500 Shares Buybacks Estimate As Percent of Market Capitalization: Blog Post
Therefore, the 20 Year S&P 500 Price change of 289.3%, when adjusted for stock repurchases, has a adjusted gain in the 267.3% to 240.7% range, with a mid-point of 254%. Compared to an estimated S&P 500 GDP change of 160%. Expressed another way, over 20 years the S&P 500 Price, adjusted for stock repurchases, changed 94% > S&P 500 GDP.
US Labor Department December Report / US Federal Reserve Taper
Today, US Non-Farm Payrolls reported a paltry 74K increase in December, short of the 200K jobs economist consensus had expected. Unemployment fell to 6.7%, but the U6 Total Unemployment was unchanged above a troubling 13%. The Civilian Labor Force Participation fell to a disturbingly low 62.8%:
Friday, December 20, 2013
BEA Final December Report: Q3 2013 US GDP Even Strong 4.1% Revised Up from 3.6%
Wednesday, December 18, 2013
US Federal Reserve Taper / US Labor Department November Report
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