One Year Central Banks Balance Sheets Change vs. Currency X-Rate Change: Impotent Correlation On Weak-Inverse-Relationship

Central Banks Balance Sheets- BOJ, Fed, BOE, ECB (courtesy of @AxelMerk)
Currencies denominated in US Dollars- Euro, Pound, Yen:

The weak-inverse-relationship might partially be accounted for by the US Fed paying 0.25% to Federal Reserve banks to hold Reserves, thereby keeping this portion of the Monetary Base out of M2.

BEA Preliminary January Report: Q4 2013 US GDP Weakened to 3.2%, Down From Strong Q3 of 4.1%

Q4 report breaks the three-quarter positive trend ending in Q3, off 0.9% quarter-over-quarter, weakness driven by lower Private Investment and Government Spending:

Google 3 Yr % Change- In light of Revenue & Profit Trends, Stock Price is High

YChart: http://j.mp/1ftVvpw

Apple 3 Yr % Change- In light of Revenue & Profit Trends, Stock Price is Very Low

YChart: http://j.mp/1aLcGnl

20 Year S&P 500 Shares Buybacks Estimate As Percent of Market Capitalization

Top Five Countries by GDP (Representing 50% of World GDP) 20 Year Index of Economic Freedom Score

Progress is disappointing! The US has been on a stead decline since peaking in 2007, after having achieved 'Free' country status (>80) from 2006 through 2010, the highest Economic Freedom grouping. The US has now slipped in the country rankings to 12th place. Germany, and Japan remain in the 'Mostly Free' camp, while France is stuck in the 'Moderatly Free' group. Only China and Germany have improved over the 20 Yrs:

Top Five Countries by GDP (Representing 50% of World GDP) 20 Year Index of Economic Freedom % Change

Only China and Germany have improved over the 20 year span, yet China languishes in the 'Mostly Unfree' bracket of countries. The US, Germany, and Japan remain in the 'Mostly Free' camp, while France is stuck in the 'Moderatly Free' group:

20 Year S&P 500 Valuation Growth vs. GDP Growth

In Nominal terms, the S&P 500 has grown 289% over the past 20 years, compared to 160% for the S&P GDP (approximation based on 50/50 sales mix proportions; World GDP 182%, and US 137%): 

Below statement added January 30, 2014: In full disclosure, market capitalization (not presently available) would be a better way to look at this, because there have been unprecedented stock repurchases in the S&P500, which are not reflected in my graph.

I have calculated what I feel is the appropriate factor range, 22% to 48.6%, to subtract from the "20 Year S&P 500 Valuation Growth vs. GDP Growth" chart above. Here is the chart used showing my calculation method- 20 Year S&P 500 Shares Buybacks Estimate As Percent of Market Capitalization: Blog Post

Therefore, the 20 Year S&P 500 Price change of 289.3%, when adjusted for stock repurchases, has a adjusted gain in the 267.3% to 240.7% range, with a mid-point of 254%. Compared to an estimated S&P 500 GDP change of 160%. Expressed another way, over 20 years the S&P 500 Price, adjusted for stock repurchases, changed 94% > S&P 500 GDP.

US Labor Department December Report / US Federal Reserve Taper

Today, US Non-Farm Payrolls reported a paltry 74K increase in December, short of the 200K jobs economist consensus had expected. Unemployment fell to 6.7%, but the U6 Total Unemployment was unchanged above a troubling 13%. The Civilian Labor Force Participation fell to a disturbingly low 62.8%:

The very low Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate has not been this low since 1978, which may be a significant factor in the US Federal Reserve's Taper decisions, overshadowing the improved but somewhat deceptive Unemployment Rate improvement. I expect the Fed's next move will be to maintain its bond buying program at $75B or reduce it by only a modest $10B (consistent with last move):