10 yr-2 yr Treasuries, -0.51 Yield Curve Inversion

August 1981 is the last time the Yield Curve Inversion was higher than today. The two-year is yielding 4.7%, astoundingly high. The inversion is a very strong signal of recession.

Real Weekly Earnings of Production & Nonsupervisory Employees, Ex-Gov

Blue-collar workers, with <2 years under Biden, have seen the steepest declines to inflation-adjusted pay. Only Ford & Carter have seen similar catastrophe:

Courtesy Advisor Perspectives

Real story about +2.6% GDP in Q3, improved from -0.6% in Q2

Personal Consumption declined from 2% to 1.4%. Investments improved from -14.1% to -8.5%. Imports declined from +2.2% to -6.9% (positive for GDP). Government Spending increased from -1.6% to +2.4%, with Fed petal swinging +7.1% Q/Q, the whopper! 

Consumer Confidence dipped to 102.5 in October. This level indicated we were in or going into Recession the last 5 times

S&P 500 Change in Forward 12-Month EPS vs. Change in Price:

Source: FactSet